Russia’s budget by 2017, with an average oil price of $40 per barrel, could be a disaster for the country. This is reported by Vedomosti, citing sources in the Russian ministries.
It is noted that in the baseline scenario of the budget for 2017 laid down the price of oil at $40 a barrel. When the cost of black gold, the budget deficit would significantly exceed the proposed Ministry of Finance of 3.2%.
“With this budget and monetary policy the demand will shrink to negative values, the funds will end. There will be nothing”, – said a source in the financial-economic bloc.
At the same time, the Russian government believes that the average annual oil price will be between $47-55 per barrel. In this regard, the Ministry of economic development has developed a plan for the budget for 2017-2019 “basic plus”. According to him, the price of oil in 2017 should be $50 per barrel, in 2018-2019 – $55.
“Estimated CRVSA three-year budget does not add up when the barrel of oil at $40. The deficit is shrinking much more slowly than is assumed by the Ministry of Finance by freezing the nominal spending level 15,78 trillion rubles a year for all three years,” – said the Director of the development Center of the Higher school of Economics Natalia Akindinova.
According to her, at such price for oil, money in funds quickly come to an end, and the deficit remains large. For balancing the budget need either higher economic growth or a weaker ruble.
“We expect growth in oil prices to $50 a barrel – it’s too risky, especially when almost no reserves,” – said the head of the Economic expert group Evsey Gurvich. In his opinion, in such conditions it is necessary to lay more conservative settings.
“To lay a higher price – wise. Can and gleaning income” – agrees with his words Akindinova.