The conflict in the Donbass creates a strategic problem for the West, and the question of the origin of the “great war” – is the question of the political future of the country-aggressor Russia. This was written in an article for the mirror of the week the Director of the National Institute for strategic studies Volodymyr Gorbulin.
“Today, the conflict in the East of Ukraine, despite its relative valuequest, creates a strategic problem for the West: deterioration of relations with Russia at incomprehensible positives from this situation,” he said.
According to him, it cannot be excluded that Russia “in parallel full swing” preparing an alternative scenario – especially military.
“However, the issue of the great war is also the question of the political future of Russia and Vladimir Putin in particular. There are opinions (with which it is possible to agree, – ed.), the threat of a major war on Russia’s initiative is the probability that is attributable to the period after Putin’s departure from office in 2024. (barring any extreme situations, – ed.), “said said.
He believes that if the current nature of the internal and foreign policy of Russia will not change, the stirrings of outright fascism and religious fundamentalism that we see in Russia now, will give real fruits to 2024.
7 Feb Horbulin said that the Kremlin within the framework of a hybrid war may apply to Ukraine three scenarios: a military offensive, the ultimatum with the requirement of federalization of the state and the transformation ORDO in the gray zone of frozen conflict.