In its confrontation with NATO, Russia might use Belarus to create conventional and hybrid threats to Western countries and Ukraine. This is stated in the report of the Belarusian Center for strategic and political studies.
The authors of the report Arseniy sivitsky and Yuri Tsarik noted the unprecedented political and military pressure, which is the subject of Belarus from country-aggressor. According to analysts, this pressure is connected with the attempts of the Russian leadership to engage Belarus in its ongoing comprehensive, including military, confrontation with the West. The strategic goal of this policy is undermining the Euro-Atlantic unity, including the disintegration of the EU and NATO.
According to the authors, an extreme manifestation of Moscow’s pressure on Minsk was the placement on the border with Belarus the Russian troops in quantities potentially sufficient to implement on the territory of Belarus measures of the “hybrid war”, similar in scale to those implemented in the East of Ukraine.
“Organized by the Russian side of the incident reports about the “terrorist threat in the Crimea”, and the subsequent bringing of the armed forces to combat readiness confirms the Kremlin’s willingness to use a provocation to escalate tension and to create occasions for active intervention. This step is aimed at intimidating Western countries, reducing their motivation in relation to the policy of containment of Russia. In addition, devaluing the Minsk process and attracting attention to Ukraine, this crisis unleashes the Kremlin’s aggressive actions against the Republic of Belarus”, – analysts say.
They are convinced that the Kremlin is trying to turn Belarus into a source of security threat to NATO countries and Ukraine. to achieve this, Russia’s actions towards Belarus will be comprehensive and include the whole range of measures from direct military intervention and diplomatic pressure to bribe officials and inspiring riots.
Now the troops of the aggressor are grouped in the area of Bryansk oblast and Smolensk regions, which allows them in a short time (8-16 hours) to reach on the territory of Belarus Gomel and Orsha, specify analysts.