In the framework of the 13th meeting of the Yalta European Strategy in Kiev was an American diplomat, the author of the concept bespoljarnyj world, Richard Haass.
Haas began his career in the Pentagon and the state Department from 1989 to 1993 he was special assistant to President George H. W. Bush on the Middle East and South Asia, was awarded the presidential medal for development of U.S. policy during the Gulf war. After the return of Republicans to power in January 2001 – June 2003 was head of policy planning for the US state Department and adviser to Secretary of state Colin Powell, while working as a coordinator of policy on Afghanistan and the U.S. special envoy for the peace process in Northern Ireland. For contribution to the peace process in Ulster received in 2013, Irish Tipperary peace prize.
Haas heads one of the leading think tanks of the USA – Council on foreign relations, is the author of 12 books on U.S. foreign policy and world politics. Most famous are his idea that the world is in the state of nonpolarity after a brief dominance of the US after the end of the Cold war. A manifestation of this is the increase in the number of States of centers of power, new nuclear States like North Korea, and groups like the Islamic state, who challenge the world order. All of this leads to an increase of chaos in the world, but the greatest concentration of this trend is the middle East, where the situation was aggravated by the intervention in Iraq, the lack of the necessary reaction to the use of chemical weapons by Bashar al-Assad, which later gave the springboard for the development of IG.
In an interview ЛІГА.net Haas recommended as Ukraine to survive in a world where there is no single leader, but there is a threat of Russian revanchism.
– What is the place of Ukraine in this bespoljarnyj world? What is the recipe for the safety and development of our country in such circumstances, especially after the failure of the Budapest Memorandum?
– What I mean by bespoljarnyj world – a world where not only many countries, but there are also many different types of organizations have the power. It can be organizations such as the bill and Melinda gates Foundation, which has a significant role for global health, is global corporations and groups such as Islamic state and al-Qaeda.
We used to think of a world where only national States have value, but that all changed
We used to think of a world where only national States have value, but that all changed, the redistribution of power in the world, manifested the influence of other forces such as globalization. I believe that the world order is weaker than it was before. And Ukraine is paying the price for it: what Russia has done in Crimea is a violation of perhaps the most basic principles of international order. Military force cannot be used to change political boundaries. What we see in Eastern Ukraine is again a violation of the world order, the military intervention in the Affairs of another country. It is very hard for a country like Ukraine, to directly confront the country that much stronger.
In this case, there are several tasks that must be performed. The increase in the price of the war for Russia is good, but need other things. You need the support of the USA and European countries. Support is provided primarily in the form of sanctions against Russia, but at the same time, it is unlikely sanctions will be enough to force Russia to change policy. Therefore, Ukraine needs to continue to strengthen economic, political and military plan to reduce its vulnerability to Russia, and to increase the price of what Russia is doing. It requires sanctions and support of other countries. As a result, Ukraine needs to conduct their own conversion, and also needs friends and allies from Europe and the United States.
– How do you assess the strategy of the West towards the conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the past two years?
– She failed. The aim was to force Russia to withdraw from Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. On the other hand, we are faced with the realities of geography and Russian forces. The idea of increasing the cost of what Russia has done, whatever she did it somewhere in other place, and leads to expectations that one day Ukrainian sovereignty over the Crimea and the Donbas – ed.) will be restored. Should not be too quick to make such judgments. This would be a tragedy if the first happens the refund and not the strengthening of Ukraine. After all, Ukraine bears some responsibility for the situation because of the lack of unity among its leaders.
Is there another Ukraine – entrenched high levels of corruption – the interest for the West?
Yes. The Ukraine is symbolically important: what Russia has done in Ukraine, is a violation of international law and international principles. And Ukraine is especially important, taking into account its location, taking into account the situation in this part of the world, because what Russia is doing or wants to do here is dangerous not only for Ukraine but also for other States. Therefore, Ukraine is of interest for the whole world. Of course there is North Korea, China, the middle East, Venezuela, and a number of other topical issues. However, here the center of Europe and it (the Russian aggression, – ed.) happened unexpectedly, people did not think that need be so worry about the situation in Europe with the military and political point of view. We were concerned about the situation in the European economy and other issues, but we thought that after the Second world war and especially after the end of the Cold war, Europe is no longer the military arena. Defined exception was the Balkans and Georgia, but the Ukraine confirmed that we were wrong.
Of course, the issue of corruption we are concerned. It is very difficult to help the country politically and economically if corruption is widespread. Corruption discourages investors, complicates lending, people lose confidence in a corrupt country. Corruption is one of the historical arguments against the rapprochement with Ukraine, when they say that this country is not stable and not reliable. If we could fight corruption, and Ukrainian political leaders could work together, it would make Ukraine more attractive for partners – for the United States and Europe.
The goal is not to prevent or stop the Russian influence, and prevent and stop some types of Russian influence, such as bullying that involves the use of military force to seize territory, the use of economic power to intimidate and to force some countries to adopt a certain policy
– What are the risks and opportunities of restoration of Russian influence in the former Soviet Union?
In the case of Russia and other countries important how to implement this effect. The goal is not to prevent or stop the Russian influence, and prevent and stop some types of Russian influence, such as bullying that involves the use of military force to seize territory, the use of economic power to intimidate and to force some countries to implement certain policy. Concern that the United States feels towards Russia is the way it uses economic and military strength, in particular in Georgia and Ukraine. This is an argument not just for sanctions, and for more energy independence from Russia, greater energy self-sufficiency and a good argument for increasing military capabilities, not only for Ukraine but also for the Baltic NATO countries. It is necessary to deprive Russia of its ability to believe that she can act, using economic and military power and to achieve success.
– The Russian government is using a strategy of nuclear blackmail in the relations with the West and Ukraine. How the U.S. can respond to such a policy?
– I’m more concerned about Russian conventional arms and not attempting to increase the nuclear Arsenal. Russia shows its willingness and ability to use conventional weapons, the use of cybertechnology. I understand that they have a large nuclear Arsenal, but still I’m much more concerned about the possibilities of Russia in cybersphere and conventional weapons. Rather, they will be used.
– Some experts believe that Syria and the Ukraine – the greatest failures of the Obama administration. What do you think about this?
– I think between these two cases is a big difference. In Ukraine, the US had a much smaller set of options. Much harder to say that the United States could and should have done differently. Policy in the middle East a much more ambitious topic for criticism on what we did in such places as Syria, and what we have done in places like Libya. I think that criticism of American foreign policy over the last 10 years stronger, when we are talking about the middle East than when we are talking about Ukraine. Was positive things – increasing attention to the Asia-Pacific region, the improvement of relations with India was a good idea, but I think the biggest target for criticism is what was done or was not done in the middle East in recent years.
The interview was prepared with the assistance of the Yalta European Strategy (YES)
See also: Leon Panetta: US wants to see Ukraine able to defend themselves
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