Yesterday, the President of the United States Donald trump has officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This could derail the peace process in the middle East and to strengthen the regional position of Iran, which is perceived by a number of countries in the region as a security threat. Why the decision trump will not be profitable even Israel – in the material

Jerusalem as a disputed territory

In 1947, after the establishment of Israel on part of Palestine, the UN General Assembly adopted a “Resolution on the partition of Palestine” in which it was assumed that after the end of the British mandate Jerusalem will take control of the international community. But between Israel and Palestine began the Arab-Israeli war (1947-1949), after which the city was divided into Western (under Israeli control) and the Eastern part (under Jordanian control). After the victory in the six day war (1967) Israel gained control over East Jerusalem and in 1980 declared the whole city its capital.

The UN and much of the international community, still do not recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Eastern part of the city.

In 1995, the U.S. Congress passed a law moving the us Embassy from tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which would mean the recognition of the city as the capital of Israel. To implement this law in practice US presidents – bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama – not in a hurry to ensure the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians and not to violate the UN security Council resolution No. 478 (adopted after the proclamation by Israel of Jerusalem as its capital).

The situation changed with the arrival of the White House of Donald trump. During the election campaign he supported a radical Pro-Israel lobbying organization, and he made a promise during the election campaign to finally move the Embassy to Jerusalem. The decision was adopted on 6 Dec.

The UN security Council announced an emergency meeting on this issue: it was requested eight of the 15 member countries of the security Council (France, Bolivia, Egypt, Italy, Senegal, Sweden, Britain and Uruguay).

In the European Union and in particular in Germany and in Turkey, Canada and the UK voted against this decision of Washington as the status of Jerusalem should be determined in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

“Opened the gates of hell”

Why now trump has made this decision – it’s hard to say. Perhaps he wanted to divert attention from the investigation of Russian interference in presidential elections in the United States. But if you don’t go into the conspiracy, perhaps representatives of the lobbying structures that represent the Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and Jewish Congress, just reminded him of pre-election promises and convinced that it’s time to do them.

Director of the Institute of Oriental studies of the NAS of Ukraine Alexander Bogomolov does not exclude that the decision of trump is not irrevocable. “We still don’t know how it will react to other branches of government in the United States, what will be the position of the state Department. There are questions as to how trump released a statement: he did not specify, whether to recognize the U.S. border between East and West Jerusalem, that is, perhaps he recognizes the right of Palestinians in the Eastern part of the city,” – said Bogomolov.

Photo: EPA

In its decision trump has created, first and foremost, a big problem for US allies in the Arab world. It has weakened the position of U.S. allies in the region from Sunni Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, thereby strengthening the position of Iran and Pro-Iranian terrorist groups such as Hezbollah or Hamas – dreaming about the destruction of Israel. They will have one reason more to attract Muslims to their side. Tramp “opened the gates of hell” prokomentiroval actions of the American President, the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh.

In fact, their decision an American President has deprived US of the status of the mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian settlement and changed the status quo in the region in favor of Iran and Russia. They, not recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, will look good in the Arab world than the United States – and this despite the role of Tehran and Moscow in the Syrian war.

Be affected by the decision may trump Israel, concern about the interests which supposedly shows the President of the United States. “For Israel, now it is important to reduce the influence of Iran, because he is a real threat in the region. It is necessary to negotiate with the Saudis and other Sunni States. They started a dialogue, but now their approach is fully offset, and in the next few years it will be impossible to recover. Iran can celebrate: U.S. reduce its presence in the middle East, are losing leverage in the region when necessary to consolidate an anti-Iranian forces,” – said the Executive Director of the Center for middle Eastern studies Ihor semyvolos.

Thus, the solution trump is hardly profitable to Israel, but clearly played into the hands of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Despite the unpopularity of his economic policies, he holds the power for almost 10 years. In addition, now he is accused of corruption that sets up the Israelites against the Prime Minister.

Photo: EPA

Under these conditions, it continues to play on the desire part of Israelis to leave under Israel’s control over Jerusalem and the West Bank of the Jordan river to stay in power. It’s not a question of the capital is the sacred city for the Israelis and for the Palestinian Arabs, and Christians. Therefore, the trump decision puts an end to the question of Jerusalem’s status, it only exacerbated the conflict.

The middle East is a region where the change in the status quo invariably leads to bloodshed and the clash of interests of different coalitions of States and their satellites. Given the ensuing Palestinian protests after the decision of trump, in the near future we can expect the uprising in Palestine – intifada, the repetition of knife attacks on Israelis and foreign tourists in Israel. It can all turn to shed blood.

Step to war: what will turn the solution trump Jerusalem 08.12.2017

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