To replace the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov in his post may, Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev or Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance Rustam Azimov. Write about it The New York Times, The Moscow Times and Foreign Policy.

The publication reminded that the eldest daughter of President Gulnara Karimova, now in disgrace. In fact, the pressure on it began in 2012, when militiamen Sweden and Switzerland have started an investigation against Telecom giant Teliasonera, which tried to enter the Uzbek market. Karimov took a substantial reward to provide Teliasonera’s place in the market. Now the eldest daughter of Islam Karimov, is under house arrest in Tashkent. Younger daughter, Lola, is not considered as the successor.

“As soon as they got rid of Gulnara, they began to compose a plan. What disease do Karimov made public, means that successor was identified. Will be a leadership change, but not regime change,” he told FP in the University of Glasgow.

Danil Kislov, the chief editor of Fergana, which reported the death of Karimov, said that the President will be occupied by the Prime Minister mirzijaev. Agree with him Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Center in Moscow. “In Uzbekistan, even more than in Russia, everything depends on intelligence. Mirzijaev – comes from the NSS (national security Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan – ed.), it is also very close to the presidential family, especially to the influential wife of the President, and if he would succeed Karimov, little will change,” – said Kislov. In addition, mirzijaev – friend of the Kremlin, writes the NY Times. The Washington Post says that the family mirzijaeva tied to Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov.

According to reports, the biggest impact on the selection of the successor will be given to Karimov’s wife, Tatyana and Rustam Inoyatov, the head of the SNB (who organized disgrace Gulnara – ed.). Politico reports that Inoyatov and he can change Karimov.

By law, if Karimov dies now, or will be unable to perform his duties, his place will be the head of the Parliament Nigmatilla Yudashev, writes The Globe And Mail. Within three months we need to hold elections.

Russian political analysts Alexander Knyazev believes that the country may and collective rule, at least for a while. “Karimov and his inner circle were able to build a system of government that will function regardless of the life or death of the first person,” says Knyazev.

The Diplomat said that the most powerful clans in Uzbekistan are now in Samarkand and Tashkent. So Inoyatov is Tashkent. A Samarkand in the higher echelons of power was ex-the interior Minister of Uzbekistan Zakir Almatov. In 2005, the Samarkand clan was the hardest.” It increase in 90s and early 2000-ies of forced Karimov to form the NSS, and to put Inoyatova, the head of Department. Then Almatov was replaced in his post by Adham by Ahmedbey that was the “nail in the coffin of the Samarkand clan (because Akhmedbaev belongs to the Tashkent clan).

Interestingly, Mirziyaev is from the Samarkand clan (as Karimov himself, by the way). Therefore, the position Inoyatova, if he does not want to take the presidency, is very important. If he agrees to support mirzijaeva a delicate balance in power will not be disturbed.

The third level of influence in the country was the Fergana clan, writes Stratfor. But in recent years it has systematically pushed aside from any positions of power. So now he has little chance to nominate its candidate for the presidency, while young members can try their hand. Here lies the danger: in spite of the “iron fist” of the President, the clans always had a great influence on the electorate and the political situation in General. The sudden arrival to the highest office of any candidate, other parties could destabilize Uzbekistan, and then by the entire region.

In case of problems with the transfer of power of various groups of influence in Uzbekistan can apply for assistance to Islamist groups in Russia and Afghanistan. “While it seems not too likely, but nobody knows for sure when it comes to Afghanistan,” says Malashenko.

In Tashkent, fear and terror. About 2.5 thousand of Uzbeks fighting in Syria on the side of the IG. In Uzbekistan the Islamic movement, which last year swore allegiance to ISIS. According to others, the group associated with the Taliban.

In his column for Bloomberg, Leonid Bershidsky notes that Karimov has not done anything to ensure a smooth transfer of power. By the way, the Western media called Karimov the word “apparatchik” is a transliteration.

“Fasten your seatbelt,” commented unconfirmed information about the death of Karimov once close to Putin spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky. Bershidsky says, that to the very Karimov was closer Azizov than mirzijaev. However, the latter did much to ensure the current support regime in the regions.

Expert on Central Asia at the University of Exeter David Lewis is convinced that the Kremlin will do everything possible for a settlement to the presidency of his person. Bershidsky also recalls that the aggressor all the time trained themselves Uzbek officers, and supplied with modern weapons. As a result, the army of Uzbekistan is either the most powerful in Central Asia, or the second power after the army of Kazakhstan.

In addition, Uzbekistan is an important partner and market for NATO, despite the constant flagrant violations of human rights.

Steve Swerdlow from Human Rights Watch indicates that the West now had the opportunity to strengthen the relative independence of Uzbekistan from the Kremlin. But it will have to abandon criticism of Karimov regarding violations of human rights. Paradoxically, Karimov was able to maneuver between Russia, West and China and pitting them together to protect his own regime from total isolation.

Yesterday, August 29, Karimova-Tillyaeva said in Facebook that her father is hospitalized with a brain hemorrhage.

On the same day in the evening edition of the Fergana reported citing its sources that Karimov died in hospital about 13-14 hours in Kiev. In the office of the President of Uzbekistan did not confirm reports of the death of President Islam Karimov.

Today it became known that the country has cancelled scheduled for August 31 official events, timed to the 25th anniversary of the Declaration of independence of the country. In previous years, this day, the President usually appeared in public.





The most likely successor to Karimov, the Prime Minister mirzijaev 31.08.2016

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