In Moldova Pro-Western government and Pro-Russian President Igor Dodon already a few days trying to find out who is the boss, breaking spears around the question about sending Moldovan military for exercise in Ukraine. (57 troops still arrived to Ukraine – ed.)

On Wednesday, Dodon repeatedly, until a decision by the Constitutional court suspended the decree of the government about sending Moldovan military on exercise Rapid Trident in Ukraine, which will be held on 8-23 October in the framework of Partnership for peace NATO.

“According to the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova is a neutral state, and the Moldovan military personnel should not participate in military exercises held under the auspices of any military bloc,” wrote he in Facebook. In his opinion, the decision of the government is a violation of the law on state security of Moldova, according to which the commander approves the decision to send troops to participate in joint military exercises with other States.

The government earlier decided to send to Ukraine for exercises 57 troops without any equipment and to prepare to embed in Kosovo. Moreover, the teachings of the Moldovan military participate not the first year.

The Moldovan military exercise Rapid Trident in Ukraine in 2014 (photo EPA)

In the government the decision of the President intend to ignore. “The national army will participate in exercises in accordance with today’s government decision and the decision of the Dodon can’t stop,” said state Advisor to Prime Minister of Moldova Stella Nistor said in comments Newsmaker.

Prime Minister Pavel Filip said that he is not the first time breaks the military exercises that are important for the army of Moldova. “For anybody not a secret that 80 percent of budget on training the national army is provided by external development partners. Refusal to participate in six exercises means that about five million lei for the training of military personnel and their qualification was not used”, – explained the Prime Minister.

Ukrainian political scientist, expert of the Council of foreign policy “Ukrainian prism” Sergey Gerasimchuk noted that the Moldovan military can not go to Ukraine, as the issue should be considered by the constitutional court upon the submission of the Dodon on the subject of constitutionality. “If the Moldovan military will go at the time, as the decision is not accepted by the Constitutional court, it would be a violation of procedure. At the same time that he wants to be neutral of all neutrals – not a good reason not to send Moldovan military on these teachings. Do Moldova a neutral state, but the exercises are held in the framework of Partnership for peace, which involved neutral countries such as Austria, Switzerland. Sweden and Turkmenistan”, – explains the analyst.

On the morning of 7 September it became known that the Moldovan military have arrived on exercises in the Ukraine. This shows that the powers of Dodona are becoming more and more nominal.

Defender Of The Kremlin

The government of Moldova controlled by the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, and the Pro-Russian President said he is not the first month clash over authority and approaches to foreign policy. While the President is trying to promote rapprochement with Russia and the unrecognized Republic of Transnistria, the government is going to aggravate relations with Moscow.

Vlad plahotniuc (photo – EPA)

May 3, 2017 the constitutional court of Moldova declared illegal the stay of the Russian military on the territory of Transnistria. The court decision notes that “about 11% of the country is occupied, and the Russian army was not withdrawn from the Transnistrian region”.

Dodon said that the decision was made in the interests of supporters of the unification of Romania and Moldova. “Not the first time the composition of the constitutional court bows to the unionists. The impression that the judge, the COP wanted and the letter of the Constitution to respect, but also Romanian citizenship is not a compromise”, – he said. In July 2017 he wanted to go to the celebration of the 25th anniversary of the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria, that is, those people whom the constitutional court found the occupants of the state, which he heads.

In may, the Moldovan authorities have expelled five Russian diplomats. He called it the order of the West. “Do you think if in the West someone’s roof, it will save you? Want to start a tougher battle? What, lost your mind?”, – outraged the President.

2 August, the government declared persona non grata by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, to which he responded with threat of sanctions against Moldova, Igor Dodon, were outraged and asked the Russian leadership not to impose sanctions.

The number of Russians that Moldova prohibits the entry, regularly increasing.

In addition, in November 2016, Moldova and NATO signed an agreement on opening a liaison office with NATO in Chisinau. While the Dodon for several months opposed to his opening, calling the attacks on the country’s neutrality and provocation, Prime Minister Philip promises that the office for relations with NATO will have to operate in autumn this year.

Is there a threat of becoming a Pro-Russian regime on the southern border of Ukraine

But amid all these manifestations of the helplessness of Pro-Russian President and the actions of the government of Moldova designed to show Dodon his real place in the power vertical, we should not forget that the ruling coalition is in a situation of bankruptcy. This was facilitated by numerous corruption scandals, the discontent of the shadow leadership of the country from Vlad Plahotniuc, high expectations from the process of European integration. In the parliamentary elections at the end of 2018, the Party of socialists of Dodon can take control of the Parliament and rule the country single-handedly.

According to the April survey by CBS-AXA, the socialists can count almost 32% of the vote, the Pro-European liberal party, headed by former education Minister Maia Sandu – 16%, the prospects for other Pro-European parties to get into Parliament is not very large, but 40% of voters are undecided or will not come to the land. Therefore, it is possible that the South-Western border of Ukraine at the Kremlin in 2019 will have a new ally.

“To prevent the Dodon and his party can the fact that Pro-Russian voters also claims to be the party of Renato Usatyi, who denounces the Dodon as a traitor, and the transition to a mixed system of parliamentary elections, when half of MPs will be selected on majority system and the current government may use the administrative resources that the socialists have not got a majority in Parliament. And in case of victory of Dodona is an unpleasant situation, because there could be legalization of the Russian military in Transnistria. Now their rotation of Moldova and Ukraine will not allow, in case of obtaining control of Parliament the socialists in Moldova can afford it”, – said Sergey Gerasimchuk.

Even more grim picture depicted Moldovan journalist Sergey Ilchenko. “The government is Pro-Western course of European integration, which the politician uses to his reputation in the West improving, as he is the representative of the old oligarchy. And there is the President of the open Russian agent, that in the Russian Embassy goes to work. Confrontation with Parliament Dodon actually seeking impeachment, then to withdraw to protest 10 thousand people to the streets in Chisinau, bringing them from villages and paying 200-300 lei (300-400 UAH – ed.). And I wouldn’t be surprised if these people someone will start shooting, to open the way for the Pro-Russian coup. The administrative border with Transnistria’s almost transparent and the armed men there may come,” – he said.

Election poster of the party Dodon (photo – EPA)

According to Ilchenko, the Moldovan Pro-European opposition is too weak, it lacks of worthy leaders and trust among the population to resist Pro-Russian forces and security agencies, nobody wants to quarrel with Dodon, because “tomorrow it may get up.” “This applies to the army and intelligence services, and especially in the interior Ministry. There before the Minister may say, but on the execution level, the situation is different. Nobody wants the European course and all will flop to the winning side. And in this case Ukraine will have a southern front. Could there not be military action, but to keep troops on the border with Moldova will have,” he notes.

In such conditions it is not surprising that the President of Moldova does not want to send the military on exercises, which can not adversely affected the defense capabilities of the Moldovan army. The question whether Igor Dodon its defense – is rhetorical. It is a suitable ally for the Kremlin, including the implementation of plans in respect of Ukraine.

The taming of Dodona: does Ukraine threatens South hybrid front 07.09.2017

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